By Stanley K. Smith
This ebook makes a speciality of the method and research of country and native inhabitants projections. It describes the main normal information resources and alertness innovations for 4 different types of projection equipment: cohort-component, development extrapolation, structural types, and microsimulation. It covers the elements of inhabitants progress, resources of knowledge, the formation of assumptions, the advance of assessment standards, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of varied projection equipment and can pay distinctive realization to the original difficulties that symbolize small-area projections. The authors supply useful counsel to demographers, planners, marketplace analysts, and others referred to as directly to build kingdom and native inhabitants projections. They use many examples and illustrations and current feedback for facing unique populations, precise situations, and insufficient or unreliable info. They describe suggestions for controlling one set of projections to a different, for interpolating among time issues, for sub-dividing age teams, and for developing projections of population-related variables (e.g., institution enrollment, households). They talk about the function of judgment and the significance of the political context within which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for choice making in an international of competing calls for and constrained assets. This finished ebook will offer readers with an knowing not just of the mechanics of the main accepted inhabitants projection tools, but additionally of the numerous advanced matters affecting their building, interpretation, review, and use.
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Extra resources for A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections
Ever since George Washington complained about an undercount in the very first census, government officials and other interested parties have been concerned about the accuracy of census results (Anderson and Fienberg 1999, p. 29). Census errors may be caused by missed households, refusal to respond, recording errors, sampling errors, geographic assignment errors, duplication errors, coding and dataprocessing errors, and the incorrect imputation of missing data. S. Census Bureau 2012a). These omissions were offset by a roughly equal number of duplicates.
This volatility makes migration more difficult to forecast accurately, adding a major source of uncertainty to subnational projections that is small or non-existent in most national projections. 3 How Can This Book Help? 15 Finally, the small size of many local areas means that individual events have a greater impact on population change than is the case for nations (and most states). Examples include the construction of a prison, the growth of a college or university, the opening of a new highway, and the closing of a major employer.
Thirty-seven states had positive net migration in both time periods, three had negative net migration in both time periods, and 10 changed signs between the two decades. Two of the most dramatic changes occurred in Illinois and Michigan, as both states had net in-migration between 1990 and 2000 but substantial net out-migration between 2000 and 2010. It should be noted that because net migration is calculated as a residual, it includes the effects of errors in census counts and vital statistics data.